As we hit the home stretch of 2009, I'm reminded of the often quoted first line of Charles' Dickens' A Tale of Two Cities (for those who forget… “It was the best of times it was the worst of times”). 2009 has been a phenomenally successful year for our company and for many of our clients. Yet at the same time, we've all been confronted with a challenging economy across the board. Those of us in the sports, media, travel and leisure industries have been far from immune from having to get more done with less. Of equal importance, we've seen our customers grapple with similar circumstances. As the air has been let out of the luxury market, the incessant aspirational pursuit of “more” has been replaced by a value consciousness that is being articulated in our research by these customers, more loudly than in recent memory, if ever. So the question remains, “will this prevail” or will we go back to where we were just a few years ago?

In a brutal case of irony and contradiction, I sat down to finish this posting on a day in which the release of third quarter GDP growth prompted the media to loudly proclaim the end of the recession, and just a few hours later, two friends from opposite sides of the country, called to inform me that they had been laid off from executive positions.

Economists tell us that employment lags other aspects of the economy. In fact some buffeted their “celebration” of the best GDP movement in two years with a grim prediction that U.S. unemployment will climb to 10.5% by mid next year. But much of our tracking research on consumer attitudes suggests that the impact of this recession will be felt long beyond that. Sports and leisure marketers have responded with a number of tactical approaches. My November 10 item on Media Post's “Marketing: Sports” issues a particular warning for those who have simply chosen to discount their offerings. By doing so, these marketers risk not only de-valuing their brands but failing to understand some of the fundamental perceptual value constructs that are driving consumer behavior in our categories.

I've long espoused that value is far from analogous to simply offering a lower price. That isn't a fresh insight. But what has struck me in several recent studies that we have engaged in, is that there seems to be a far more grounded and humbled approach that even the most affluent consumers are applying to their discretionary purchases. A renewed quest for simplicity, security and the familiar has direct implications on how brands position themselves. This begs for a closer understanding of consumers' changing priorities, their need states and where our products and services are perceived to fit into their even more exclusive literal and figurative definition of “communities”.

There is no easy answer to the question posed by the title of this article. Shifts in consumer discretionary spending behavior will become a permanent new normal for some and an aberration for others anxious to resume the free-wheeling ways of just a few years ago. The difficult answers can be found in tracking and studying these ever changing attitudes and perceptions, and using those insights to design and position products and services in ways that speak directly to each customer and meeting them on their level, rather than condescending from a perch above them. It may signal a boom for more sophisticated direct marketing and attitudinal customer segmentation to drive it. It also means addressing customer needs and espousing direct product benefits rather than simply tantalizing desires.